In-depth Analysis of Precious Metals Market Trends on October 4, 2026
In the global precious metals market on October 4, 2026, gold and silver prices showed significant fluctuations, reflecting the complex interplay of global policy shifts and market sentiment. This article will comprehensively analyze the day's precious metals market dynamics, deeply explore the driving factors behind price movements, and provide practical trading references for investors.
Market Overview: Gold and Silver Prices Oscillating Upward
As of the close on October 4, 2026, international gold prices closed at $5,325 per ounce, up 1.8% from the previous trading day, reaching a two-week high. Silver prices followed gold's trend, closing at $28.75 per ounce, with a gain of 2.3%. In the Vietnamese domestic market, SJC gold prices broke through 1.53 million dong per tael, reaching a new high for the year, showing strong investor demand for precious metals.
Price Analysis: Gold and Silver Strengthening in Sync
From a technical perspective, after breaking through the key resistance level of $5,300, gold prices showed an accelerated upward trend. On the daily chart, gold prices have closed positively for three consecutive days, with the MACD indicator forming a golden cross, and the RSI indicator entering the overbought zone but not yet peaking, suggesting there is still room for upward movement in the short term. Silver prices performed more strongly, not only breaking through the $28 resistance level but also narrowing the gold-silver ratio to 185:1, approaching the lowest level of the year, indicating that silver is relatively more attractive than gold.
In the Vietnamese market, SJC gold prices broke through 1.53 million dong per tael, up about 12% from the beginning of the year, outperforming the Vietnamese stock market index over the same period. This performance is mainly due to the dual factors of Vietnamese dong depreciation pressure and rising domestic inflation expectations. Meanwhile, silver prices in the Vietnamese market also showed a synchronous upward trend, but with significantly higher volatility than gold, reflecting investors' cautious attitude toward silver.
Influencing Factors: Interplay of Policy Shifts and Market Sentiment
The main factors driving the rise in precious metal prices on the day include three aspects:
- Enhanced Expectations for Federal Reserve Policy Shift: The latest economic data shows that US inflation has somewhat eased, and market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year have significantly increased. According to federal funds rate futures, the market expects a 75% probability of a rate cut in November, which has led to a weaker US dollar index, boosting dollar-denominated precious metal prices.
- Geopolitical Risks Continue to Escalate: The escalating tensions in the Middle East and increased uncertainty in European energy supplies have prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven tool, has received capital inflows. Additionally, global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, providing solid support for gold prices.
- Divergent Global Economic Data: Although US economic data has cooled, Asian economic performance has been relatively strong, with China and India's manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory, boosting demand for industrial metals and indirectly driving up prices of precious metals like silver.
Geopolitical Impact: Safe-Haven Sentiment Dominates the Market
Geopolitical factors played a key role in the precious metals market on October 4. The intensifying situation in the Middle East, with escalating conflicts between major oil-producing countries, has pushed up international oil prices, thereby exacerbating inflation concerns. Against this backdrop, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, attracted significant capital inflows.
Meanwhile, uncertainty in European energy supplies has also prompted the European Central Bank to maintain a hawkish stance, creating a policy divergence with the Federal Reserve. This policy difference has increased global financial market volatility, further boosting gold's safe-haven demand. Data shows that global gold ETFs had a net inflow of 23 tons in the first four trading days of October, the highest in nearly three months.
Economic Data Interpretation: Inflation vs. Growth
The latest economic data shows that US CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in September, lower than the expected 3.5%, marking the smallest increase since April 2023. This data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a weaker US dollar index, which in turn boosted precious metal prices. However, the US job market remains strong, with the unemployment rate staying at a low of 3.7% in September, which limited the dollar's decline.
In the Asian region, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2, returning to expansion territory; India's services PMI reached 58.5, the highest in six months. These positive data boosted market confidence in Asian economic growth and also drove demand for industrial metals including silver.
Investment Strategies: Seizing Differentiated Opportunities
Based on current market conditions, we offer the following recommendations for different types of investors:
- Long-term Investors: Continue to maintain the allocation ratio of gold in the portfolio, accounting for 5%-10% of total assets. Considering global geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, gold as a safe-haven asset and wealth preservation tool still has long-term investment value.
- Short-term Traders: Pay attention to the gold price support level around $5,300. If it effectively breaks through, consider entering at higher levels. For silver, due to higher volatility, it is recommended to set stop-loss levels to control risks.
- Vietnamese Domestic Investors: Considering Vietnamese dong depreciation pressure and domestic inflation expectations, it is advisable to increase the proportion of gold in asset allocation. At the same time, pay attention to possible changes in monetary policy by the State Bank of Vietnam, which will directly affect local gold prices.
Future Outlook: Still Room for Upward Movement in the Short Term
Looking ahead to the next week, the precious metals market may continue to be affected by the following factors:
- The Federal Reserve Chair will deliver an important speech next week, and the market will closely monitor his statements on monetary policy, which may trigger market fluctuations.
- The US will release non-farm employment data. If the data is weak, it may further strengthen rate cut expectations, which is beneficial for precious metal prices.
- The development of geopolitical situations in the Middle East will continue to affect market safe-haven sentiment, becoming an important factor driving gold prices.
Overall, the precious metals market is expected to remain strong in the short term, especially gold prices may continue to test the $5,400 level. However, investors should also be alert to potential market correction risks, especially around Federal Reserve policy statements and non-farm data releases.
For Vietnamese investors, after SJC gold prices broke through 1.53 million dong per tael, they may continue to rise in the short term, but it is necessary to closely monitor the policy directions of the State Bank of Vietnam and changes in the US dollar to Vietnamese dong exchange rate, as these factors will directly affect the trend of local gold prices.
In conclusion, in the current complex and changing market environment, precious metals, as an important part of asset allocation, will increasingly highlight their safe-haven attributes and value preservation functions. Investors should reasonably allocate precious metal assets according to their own risk tolerance and investment goals, seize market opportunities, and avoid potential risks.
