On September 24, 2026, Vietnam's domestic gold market saw renewed volatility. According to the latest data from the Vietnam Gold Association (VGJA), Vietnam SJC gold bar prices broke through 1.51 billion VND per tael (approximately $5,350 per ounce), hitting a new high for the year. This price rose about 2.3% from the previous week and has increased by over 15% year-to-date. Amid rising expectations of a Fed rate cut and intensifying global geopolitical risks, physical gold has once again become a "safe haven" sought after by investors, while the continued depreciation of the Vietnamese dong has further pushed up local gold prices.
I. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: A "Stimulus" for Gold Prices
Recently, the Federal Reserve's policy moves have become a key factor affecting gold prices. On September 20, 2026, the Fed released the minutes of its September meeting, showing that most members supported starting a rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an expected cut of 25 basis points. After this signal was released, the US Dollar Index fell sharply from 102.5 to 101.2, hitting a new low in nearly three months. A weaker dollar makes gold priced in dollars relatively cheaper, thus stimulating global gold demand.
Notably, Fed Chair Powell emphasized in his post-meeting remarks that inflation is falling faster than expected, but the economy still faces "downside risks." This statement further strengthened market expectations of a rate cut, making gold's "inflation-hedging" and "safe-haven" attributes prominent again. For Vietnamese investors, a Fed rate cut means lower returns on dollar assets, while gold, as a non-credit asset, is more favored for its value stability. Nguyen Thi Phuong, a precious metals analyst at Vietnam Investment Bank (VIB), said: "A Fed rate cut will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and enhance its safe-haven appeal, which is the core driver pushing up Vietnam's gold prices."
II. Intensifying Global Geopolitical Risks: Surge in Safe-Haven Demand
Besides Fed policy, the turmoil in global geopolitical situations is also a key factor driving gold price increases. Recently, the Middle East situation has remained tense, with the conflict between Iran and Israel escalating, leading to a surge in crude oil prices and exacerbating market concerns about an energy crisis. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, and European energy security still faces uncertainty, all of which have prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold.
The latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that global gold ETF holdings reached a historical high of 3,210 tons in the second quarter of 2026, a 5.2% increase from the previous quarter. Among them, ETF holdings in Asia grew the most significantly, reaching 870 tons, a 12% year-on-year increase. As an important gold-consuming country in Asia, Vietnam's ETF market, though small in scale, has seen a rising demand for gold allocation from investors. Data from the Vietnam Gold Traders Association (VGTA) shows that Vietnam's gold ETF trading volume increased by 15% year-on-year from January to August 2026, with individual investors accounting for 60%, higher than 45% in the same period of 2025.
The impact of geopolitical risks on gold prices is reflected not only in the ETF market but also in physical gold demand. Data from the Vietnam Gold Association shows that Vietnam's gold imports reached 18 tons in August 2026, a 22% year-on-year increase, most of which was used to meet domestic investment demand. Meanwhile, gold jewelry consumption declined by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating that investors prefer to buy investment-type gold like gold bars and coins rather than jewelry.
III. Vietnamese Dong Depreciation: A "Booster" for Local Gold Prices
The continued depreciation of the Vietnamese dong is also a key reason driving up SJC gold prices. Since 2026, the exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar has fallen from 23,500 VND/USD to 25,800 VND/USD, a depreciation of over 9%. This depreciation has increased the cost of importing gold, thus pushing up local gold prices. Additionally, Vietnam's domestic inflation rate remains high, with the CPI up 5.8% year-on-year in August 2026, higher than the central bank's 4% target range. Inflationary pressure makes investors more inclined to hold gold for preservation, as gold's long-term purchasing power is relatively stable.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has recently taken a series of measures to stabilize the exchange rate, including raising policy rates and intervening in the foreign exchange market, but the effects of these measures are limited. The depreciation trend of the Vietnamese dong is expected to continue until the end of 2026, which will support gold prices. Vietnam gold analyst Tran Van Cuong said: "The depreciation of the Vietnamese dong is a long-term trend, influenced by domestic economic structures (such as trade deficits) and external factors (such as a stronger dollar), and is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Therefore, local gold prices will continue to be higher than international gold prices, and investors need to pay attention to this difference."
IV. Industry Analysis: Evolution of Gold-Buying Logic
From an industry perspective, the gold-buying logic in Vietnam's current gold market is changing. In the past, Vietnamese investors mainly bought gold for jewelry consumption, but with increasing economic uncertainty, investment demand has gradually become dominant. According to a survey by Vietnam Investment Bank (VIB), in the second quarter of 2026, the proportion of hedging in the investment purposes of Vietnamese gold investors reached 45%, higher than 32% in the same period of 2025; while the proportion of jewelry consumption fell from 38% to 28%.
This change reflects investors' re-recognition of gold's functions. Gold is no longer just a decorative item but has become an important part of asset allocation. For ordinary investors, gold's high liquidity and stable value make it suitable as a "core position" for long-term holding; for short-term traders, gold price fluctuations also provide profit opportunities, but market risks need to be considered. Le Van Dung, chairman of the Vietnam Gold Traders Association (VGTA), said: "Currently, Vietnam's gold market is shifting from 'consumption-oriented' to 'investment-oriented', with investors paying more attention to gold's preservation and appreciation functions, a trend that will continue."
V. Buying and Selling Timing: Balancing Short-Term Fluctuations and Long-Term Holding
How should investors grasp the timing of buying and selling given the current gold price trend? First, in the short term, gold prices may continue to rise under the influence of Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, but attention should be paid to the rebound risk of the US Dollar Index. If the Fed suddenly releases a hawkish signal or geopolitical tensions ease, gold prices may correct. Therefore, short-term traders need to closely monitor market dynamics and set stop-loss points.
In the long term, gold's preservation function remains prominent. As global debt levels rise and monetary policy eases, gold's "ultimate asset" status will be further consolidated. For long-term investors, the current gold price may be a good time to buy, especially considering the depreciation trend of the Vietnamese dong and domestic inflationary pressure. It is recommended that investors adopt a "dollar-cost averaging" approach, buying in batches to reduce costs. For example, purchase a fixed amount of gold each month to avoid buying in bulk at high prices.
Additionally, investors need to consider the storage costs and liquidity of gold. Physical gold requires a secure storage place, while gold ETFs offer more convenient liquidity. For Vietnamese investors, gold ETFs are a good choice because of their low transaction costs, high liquidity, and suitability for short-term trading.
VI. Risk Warning: Factors to Note
Although gold has a safe-haven attribute, investors still need to pay attention to the following risks: First, the uncertainty of Fed policy. If the Fed delays rate cuts or raises rates, the US Dollar Index may rebound, thus suppressing gold prices. Second, the easing of geopolitical risks. If the Middle East situation or the Russia-Ukraine conflict is resolved, safe-haven demand may decline, and gold prices may correct. Third, Vietnam's domestic economic policies. If the central bank adopts a tight monetary policy to curb inflation, it may affect gold demand. Finally, the liquidity risk of gold. Although gold has high liquidity, it may be difficult to liquidate in extreme market conditions.
The Vietnam Gold Association reminds investors that gold investment requires rationality and should not follow the crowd blindly. Investors should reasonably allocate gold assets according to their risk tolerance and investment goals. For beginners, it is recommended to learn the basic knowledge of gold before investing.
VII. Summary
In general, the breakthrough in Vietnam SJC gold prices on September 24, 2026, is the result of the combined effects of Fed rate cut expectations, global risk-off sentiment, and Vietnamese dong depreciation. For investors, gold remains an important asset in the current market environment, but it needs to be allocated reasonably according to one's risk tolerance and investment goals. In an uncertain market, gold's "stabilizer" role will become more prominent, and Vietnamese investors need to seize this gold-buying window to achieve wealth preservation and appreciation.
