On July 28, 2026, the latest data from the World Gold Council showed that total global gold ETF holdings officially surpassed the 4,000-ton mark on Monday, reaching 4,012 tons, a record high. Meanwhile, international gold prices hit an intraday high of $5,015 per ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, breaking the $5,000 mark, with cumulative gains exceeding 25% so far this year. This series of milestone breakthroughs marks the entry of the gold market into a new strong cycle.
Funds continue to pour in, gold ETF holdings set record
According to a weekly report from the World Gold Council, as of July 26, global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for the 15th consecutive week, with net inflows of about $4.5 billion in the past week, equivalent to about 90 tons of gold. Among them, North American funds contributed the largest increment, accounting for over 60%; Europe and Asia also maintained steady inflows. Holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), reached 1,350 tons, the highest level since August 2020.
Analysts point out that the core factors driving the surge in ETF holdings include: escalating geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflation data in major economies, and the demand for diversifying foreign exchange reserves by global central banks. In particular, recent turmoil in the Middle East and increased trade frictions have fueled strong risk aversion among investors, highlighting gold's asset allocation value.
Gold price breaks $5,000, multiple factors converge
International gold prices have fluctuated widely in the 4,700-4,900 range in the first half of this year since breaking through $4,500 at the end of 2025. In July, the Fed unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, coupled with the US CPI rising to 4.2% year-on-year and real interest rates entering negative territory, accelerating gold's upward momentum. On Monday, spot gold broke through $5,000 in early Asian trading, then maintained a high level during European and US sessions, eventually closing at $5,012 per ounce. This is the first time gold prices have stood above the $5,000 mark in history.
Market participants believe that this is not caused by short-term speculation but by structural supply-demand changes. On one hand, global central banks' net gold purchases reached 1,200 tons in 2025, a nearly 50-year high; on the other hand, gold mine production growth has slowed, with only 1.5% growth expected in 2026. A precious metals strategist at UBS Group said that gold's monetary attributes are being repriced, the global de-dollarization process is accelerating, and central banks and institutional investors continue to increase gold holdings.
Outlook for second half: Gold prices still have upside
Looking ahead to the second half, most institutions remain optimistic. Goldman Sachs' latest report raised its gold price target for end-2026 to $5,500, citing strong demand from emerging market central banks, continued ETF inflows, and rising inflation expectations as key supports. JPMorgan, however, warns of short-term profit-taking and technical adjustments, but the medium-to-long-term bullish trend remains unchanged.
Notably, although physical gold demand is somewhat suppressed at high prices, investment in gold coins and bars remains active. In the Vietnamese domestic market, Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) quoted gold bar prices at 51.2-51.4 million Vietnamese dong per tael, a premium of about 2% over international gold prices.
Overall, the gold market is experiencing a new bull run in 2026 under multiple positive factors. While paying attention to short-term price fluctuations, investors should also grasp the core value of gold as a risk hedge and asset preservation tool. Gold market barometer indicators are fully pointing to a bullish trend, but investors should be wary of correction risks from geopolitical easing or sudden monetary policy shifts.
Risk warning
- Gold prices have risen too much in the short term, with possible technical correction
- Uncertain Fed policy path; disappointment in rate cut expectations could trigger gold price decline
- Global recession risk may suppress gold demand growth
