Market Focus: Fed Rate Cut Timing Uncertain, Gold-Silver Divergence
On July 28, 2026, gold and silver markets traded cautiously during the Asian session. Spot gold fluctuated narrowly around the $3,450/oz level, with an intraday high of $3,462 and a low of $3,440; spot silver extended its rebound, holding above $31.50, gaining about 0.8% on the day. Since the beginning of this week, market sentiment has been mainly influenced by the Fed's interest rate decision and US inflation data, resulting in a "gold weak, silver strong" pattern.
Gold Under Pressure: Cooling Rate Cut Expectations and Dollar Strength
On Wednesday (July 27), the Fed announced its latest interest rate decision, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50%-5.75%, as expected. However, the post-meeting statement was hawkish, with Chair Powell stating that "inflation remains above target and more evidence is needed before cutting rates." This rhetoric dampened market bets on a September rate cut, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the probability of a September cut plunging from 68% a week ago to 42%. The US dollar index rebounded to around 104.20, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.35%, pressuring the non-yielding gold.
However, the US Q2 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate came in at 2.9%, down from the previous 3.2%, indicating a moderate decline in inflation. Some analysts believe that if subsequent data continue to improve, the Fed may still cut rates before year-end, so gold's downside is limited. Technically, gold found buying support near $3,450, which is the 20-day moving average, and may trade in a range in the short term, with resistance at $3,480 and support at $3,420.
Silver Strength: Industrial Demand Recovery and Declining Inventories
Compared to gold, silver performed more brightly. On July 28, spot silver broke through the key $31.50 level, hitting a new high since July 10. The main driver was improved industrial demand expectations – global photovoltaic installations maintained high growth, with silver usage in photovoltaic pastes continuing to increase; meanwhile, industrial demand for silver in electric vehicles, 5G communications and other fields also expanded. According to the latest report from the Silver Institute, global industrial demand for silver in 2026 is expected to grow 8% year-on-year, widening the supply-demand gap to 5,000 metric tons.
On inventories, data from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) showed that silver inventories fell 1.2% in the fourth week of July to 32,400 metric tons, a nearly three-year low. Strong physical demand provides solid support for silver prices. However, caution is warranted: if gold continues to weaken, silver may face profit-taking pressure. In the short term, watch for a break above the $32 level.
Vietnam Market: Domestic Gold Follows International Fluctuations, Demand Stabilizes
In Vietnam, the Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) quoted on the morning of July 28: 9999 gold selling price at VND 84.5 million/tael, buying price at VND 82.9 million/tael, down about VND 200,000 from the previous day. Due to the pullback in international gold prices, domestic investors turned cautious, with major gold shops in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City seeing thin trading. However, the State Bank of Vietnam recently stated that it would maintain domestic gold price stability and plans to increase import quotas to ease supply-demand tensions. Analysts noted that Vietnamese people's demand for gold as a store of value remains strong, and gold prices are expected to stay elevated in the second half of the year.
Institutional Views: Short-Term Volatility, Mid-Term Bullish
Several investment banks released their latest outlooks. Goldman Sachs maintained its year-end 2026 gold price target of $3,700/oz, citing central bank gold buying (net purchases of 450 metric tons in H1) and geopolitical uncertainty as support. UBS was more cautious, advising investors to look for catch-up opportunities in silver, expecting silver to reach $35 by year-end. For day traders, it is recommended to watch tonight's US June durable goods orders data; if weaker than expected, it could boost gold and silver prices.
Trading Suggestions: Buy on Dips, Control Position Size
In summary, spot prices are constrained in the short term by Fed policy expectations, but the medium- to long-term fundamentals remain bullish. Gold investors can build positions in batches in the $3,420-$3,450 range, with a stop-loss below $3,380; silver, if it pulls back to $31, can be lightly bought on dips, watching for a break above $32. Vietnamese domestic clients can rely on SJC quotes to buy physical gold bars moderately when gold prices pull back near VND 83 million/tael. Note that precious metals are becoming more volatile; it is recommended to keep positions within 15% of total assets.
(The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest with caution.)
