Vietnam SJC Gold Price Breaks 1.52 Billion VND Again: Buying Window Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Global Risk Aversion
On September 27, 2026, Vietnam’s gold market hit a major update—Vietnam SJC gold (24K pure gold) price broke 1.52 billion VND per tael, up ~0.66% from the previous day, reaching a new high in 2026. This data not only refreshed recent gold price records but also sparked widespread discussion about the “buying window.” Amid rising Fed rate cut expectations and intensifying global geopolitical risks, gold’s value as a traditional safe-haven asset is highlighted again, while the VND’s continuous depreciation provides extra support for gold price increases. This article analyzes the logic behind this phenomenon from four dimensions: current market dynamics, drivers, industry insights, and investment strategies, offering references for investors.
1. Current Market Dynamics: Vietnam SJC Gold Price Hits Year-High, International Gold Prices Strengthen in Sync
On September 27, 2026, Vietnam’s gold market reached a key node. According to Vietnam Gold Association data, Vietnam SJC gold (24K pure gold) price broke 1.52 billion VND per tael, up ~0.66% from the previous day, hitting a new high in 2026. This price is not only higher than 1.51 billion VND on September 23 but also closer to the 1.53 billion VND historical high set in December 2025. Meanwhile, international gold prices also strengthened in sync, with London spot gold breaking $5,300/ounce, up ~1.2% from last week, reaching a new high in nearly three months.
From market performance, the rise in Vietnam’s gold price has significantly enhanced its correlation with the global gold market. On one hand, the rise in international gold prices directly pushed up gold costs denominated in USD, while the VND’s continuous depreciation further amplified this increase; on the other hand, local Vietnamese investors’ gold buying demand surged, especially for gold bars and coins. According to Vietnam Gold Shop Association statistics, gold bar and coin sales in the first three weeks of September grew 15% year-on-year, while gold jewelry sales fell 8%, reflecting a shift from “consumption-oriented gold buying” to “investment-oriented gold buying.”
2. Driver Analysis: Three Forces Jointly Push Gold Prices Higher
1. Rising Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Weaker Dollar Supports Gold Prices
Recently, dovish remarks from Fed officials have become a core factor driving gold price increases. On September 25, Fed Chair Powell stated at a congressional hearing that, considering the pace of inflation decline and signs of economic growth slowdown, the Fed may start rate cuts in Q4 2026. This statement triggered market expectations of a weaker dollar, and as gold is a dollar alternative asset, its price naturally received support. Data shows the USD Index recently fell from 105 to 102.5, hitting a new low in nearly six months, while gold prices rose from $5,200/ounce to $5,300/ounce, showing a clear negative correlation.
For Vietnam’s market, a weaker dollar means reduced exchange rate pressure on the VND against the USD, but the VND’s depreciation trend remains unchanged. Since Vietnam’s economy relies on exports, a stronger dollar usually leads to VND depreciation, and as gold is a hard currency, its price naturally rises when denominated in VND. Additionally, Fed rate cut expectations also lower the opportunity cost of holding gold (as gold generates no interest, while rate cuts reduce yields on other assets), attracting more investors to allocate to gold.
2. Intensifying Global Risk Aversion, Geopolitical Risks Boost Gold Demand
Besides Fed policy factors, global geopolitical risks are also a key driver pushing gold prices up. Recently, Middle East tensions have remained high, with the Iran-Israel conflict escalating, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate sharply, and as a safe-haven asset, gold demand has increased accordingly. Additionally, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, concerns about European economic recession, and emerging market currency depreciation have prompted investors to turn to gold to hedge risks.
In Vietnam’s market, this risk aversion is particularly evident. Since Vietnam’s economy is highly dependent on international trade, geopolitical risks may hinder exports, affecting economic growth, so Vietnamese investors are more inclined to hold gold as a wealth preservation tool. According to Vietnam Central Bank data, Vietnam’s gold reserves grew 8% in H1 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, reaching about 100 tons, reflecting the central bank’s emphasis on gold.
3. Continuous VND Depreciation, Amplifies Gold Price Gains
VND depreciation is another key factor driving Vietnam’s gold price increases. Since 2026, the VND’s exchange rate against the USD has fallen from 23,500 VND/USD to 25,000 VND/USD, a depreciation of ~6.4%. This trend mainly stems from Vietnam’s slowing economic growth (H1 2026 GDP growth 5.2%, lower than 5.8% in 2025), expanding trade deficit (H1 trade deficit reached $12 billion), and a stronger dollar.
For Vietnamese investors, gold’s wealth preservation function is particularly important. As the VND depreciates, the purchasing power of holding VND declines, while gold, as an international hard currency, has relatively stable value. Thus, when the VND depreciates, investors are more willing to buy gold to protect wealth. Additionally, Vietnam’s government has promoted “de-dollarization” in recent years, encouraging VND use in transactions, but gold demand as an alternative asset has not decreased—it has even increased.
3. Industry Insights: Structural Changes in the Gold Market
1. Central Bank Gold Buying Becomes a Long-Term Trend, Supporting Gold Price Center
Global central bank gold buying is a key support for the gold market. According to World Gold Council data, global central banks’ net gold purchases reached 289 tons in H1 2026, a new high for the same period. Among them, emerging market central banks (e.g., Vietnam, India, Russia) are the main buyers, while developed economy central banks (e.g., Fed, ECB) remain on the sidelines.
For Vietnam’s central bank, the main purpose of gold buying is to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce dependence on the USD. Vietnam Central Bank Governor Nguyen Thi Hong stated at a July 2026 press conference that gold is “one of the safest reserve assets,” and the Vietnam Central Bank will continue to increase gold reserves. This statement boosted market confidence in gold and also drove up Vietnam’s gold prices.
2. Investor Behavior Shift: Upgrade from Consumption to Investment
Another structural change in the gold market is the shift in investor behavior. In the past, Vietnamese investors bought gold mainly for consumption (e.g., gold jewelry, weddings), but in recent years, investment demand has gradually become dominant. According to Vietnam Gold Shop Association statistics, gold bar and coin sales accounted for 60% of total gold sales from January to August 2026, while gold jewelry sales only accounted for 40%, a 10 percentage point drop year-on-year from 2025.
This shift has two main reasons: First, gold’s investment value is widely recognized, especially amid increasing economic uncertainty; second, gold jewelry has higher prices, while gold bars and coins have better liquidity, making them more suitable for investment. Additionally, Vietnam’s government’s “gold investment account” policy (allowing investors to use physical gold as collateral for loans) has also boosted demand for investment-type gold.
3. Gold ETF Holdings Hit New High, Increased Allocation by Institutional Investors
Gold ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) holdings are also an important market indicator. Since 2026, global gold ETF holdings have continued to grow, reaching 3,200 tons by September 25, a new historical high. Among them, Vietnam’s gold ETFs (e.g., Vietnam Gold ETF) holdings also grew 15%, reaching 50 tons.
Institutional investors (e.g., funds, insurance companies) are the main holders of gold ETFs, and their increased allocation reflects institutional optimism about gold in the long term. For individual investors, gold ETFs are a convenient investment method—no need to hold physical gold, yet they can share in gold price appreciation. Thus, the growth in gold ETF holdings has also boosted the activity of Vietnam’s gold market.
4. Buying/Selling Timing and Strategy Recommendations
1. Short-Term Strategy: Focus on Policy and Geopolitical Risks, Seize Volatility Opportunities
For short-term investors, it is necessary to closely monitor Fed policy meetings, geopolitical risk events, and VND exchange rate changes. For example, the Fed’s October interest rate meeting (expected 25 basis point cut) may be a short-term catalyst for gold prices; while escalation of Middle East tensions could cause significant gold price fluctuations. Additionally, VND exchange rate fluctuations will also affect Vietnam’s gold price trends, and investors can seize opportunities by paying attention to the State Bank of Vietnam’s exchange rate policies.
It is recommended that short-term investors adopt a “buy on dips” strategy, i.e., buy when gold prices pull back, avoiding chasing highs. For example, when international gold prices pull back below $5,200/ounce, one can appropriately increase gold allocation; and when Vietnam SJC gold prices pull back below 1.50 billion VND, buying can also be considered.
2. Long-Term Strategy: Gold as a Wealth Preservation Tool, Suitable for Long-Term Holding
For long-term investors, gold’s core value lies in wealth preservation. Amid increasing economic uncertainty and high inflation, gold can effectively hedge against inflation and currency depreciation risks. Thus, long-term investors can include gold as part of their investment portfolio, with a recommended allocation of 5%-10%.
It is recommended that long-term investors choose physical gold (e.g., gold bars, coins) or gold ETFs, avoiding gold jewelry (as it has higher premiums and lower liquidity). Additionally, regular fixed-amount gold investment is also a good choice, which can reduce costs and diversify risks.
3. Risk Warning: Pay Attention to Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Policy Changes
Although gold has a safe-haven attribute, it also carries certain risks. First, VND exchange rate fluctuations may cause significant gold price volatility—for example, if the VND suddenly appreciates, gold prices denominated in VND may fall. Second, Fed policy changes (e.g., delayed rate cuts) may lead to a stronger dollar, thereby suppressing gold prices. Additionally, easing of geopolitical risks may reduce risk aversion, affecting gold demand.
Therefore, when allocating to gold, investors need to manage risks well and avoid over-concentration. It is recommended to combine gold with other assets (e.g., stocks, bonds) to diversify risks.
5. Future Trend Forecast: Gold Prices Still Have Room to Rise, but Key Factors Need Attention
Looking ahead, gold prices still have room to rise, but several key factors need attention: First, the pace of Fed rate cuts—if cuts are delayed, gold prices may be suppressed; second, the evolution of geopolitical risks—if the situation eases, risk aversion may decline; third, the VND’s exchange rate trend—if the VND continues to depreciate, gold prices may continue to rise.
According to the World Gold Council’s forecast, international gold prices are expected to reach $5,500/ounce in H2 2026, while Vietnam SJC gold prices may break 1.55 billion VND. This forecast is based on Fed rate cut expectations, global risk aversion, and the continuation of VND depreciation.
For Vietnamese investors, gold remains an asset worth allocating to. In the current economic environment, gold can effectively protect wealth and cope with uncertainty. Thus, it is recommended that investors appropriately increase gold allocation based on their risk tolerance, seizing this “buying window.”
